Hotel Market: VAT Increase as a Temporary Headwind, Scarce Supply Supports Long-Term Performance

August 27, 2026

Hotels in the Netherlands continue to operate at solid occupancy levels, driven primarily by the persistent inflow of international guests. However, the announced VAT increase on accommodation in 2026–2027 may create headwinds: higher room rates could dampen guest demand, temporarily pressuring cash flows. This is one of the key findings from Bouwinvest’s Dutch Commercial Outlook 2026–2028.

While revenues may face short-term pressure, the outlook also highlights strong underlying fundamentals. New hotel development remains limited, meaning competition in many markets is not increasing further. Combined with the growth in international tourism, this scarcity supports occupancy rates and yields for existing hotels, particularly in major cities.

Key insights from the Dutch Commercial Outlook 2026–2028
- International demand continues to drive market growth
- Price ceiling in Amsterdam due to high tourist taxes
- Temporary pressure on RevPAR driven by the VAT increase
- Very limited new hotel supply
- Investment activity expected to pick up in 2025

What does this mean for investors?
The outlook underscores that the hotel market requires a long-term perspective. The VAT increase will weigh on net cash flows in the short term, but structural demand for hotel rooms remains robust. The best opportunities lie in hotels with a distinctive concept, experienced operators, and long-term contracts in strong urban markets. Selective investors could benefit once the tax effects are priced in and demand growth translates back into improved returns.

Read the full analysis
This article is based on Bouwinvest’s Dutch Commercial Outlook 2026–2028. The outlook offers an in-depth analysis of the Dutch hotel market, including scenarios for RevPAR, yields, and investment volumes by location type.